Accounting Project Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 3250 words

Accounting Project - Essay Example In 2011, its beer market I US was approximately $96 billion which shows a  down of 1%  compared to 2010. However, its net sales show a significant growth of 13.3% showing its success in capturing market share. BREW is now investing heavily in growth.1 Three creative beer making brands are owned by BREW. They always engage in the mixture and make of new beers and they attain even their own seasonal beers available only during their respective seasons. The company owns five brew-pub restaurants giving the company customer awareness that contributes highly to research and development. These restaurants help the company to keep in touch continuously with customers creating a good sense of brand loyalty. The industry the company is operating in is highly competitive and needs very hard work to have success in. Craft Brew competes in both the craft brewing market and in significantly larger alcoholic beverage markets well. This market encompasses imported and domestic beers, spirits, flavored alcohol beverages, ciders and wine. The competition in the specialty beer market and the domestic craft beer segment is based on taste, product quality, freshness and consistency, ability to differentiate products, product support and promotional methods, local appeal, distribution coverage and price. By the proliferation of the small craft brewers, also including the contract brewers, and the significant amount of products that such brewers offer, the craft beer segment has got increasingly competitive. Further, the craft brewers have also challenged us with more competition due to their peers expand distribution. Different regional markets are also means of varying competition. The company is also in competition against imported brands’ producers, such as Corona Extra, Heineken and Guinness. Most of such foreign brewers have got financial resources significantly greater than the company has. Although the imported beers account for a better share of

SEO content for a web site selling custom trailers Essay

SEO content for a web site selling custom trailers - Essay Example This is intended to bring closer selected medical services to far-flung community areas not accessible to health services. Lately, some hospital functions were devolved to diagnostic medical health mobile clinics like dental services, x-ray, blood, HIV, pregnancy, malaria and urine tests, MRI imaging, and other possible medical services are now made conveniently available to the public through customized mobile medical trailers. Mobile medical exam trailers are a necessity in far-flung community areas where first-rated hospitals are remote from community and health services that are difficult to avail of. A mobile medical exam trailer should have laboratory and diagnostic medical testing capability with a minimum of three doctors and nine nurses. It is important that a medical diagnostic mobile trailer accommodate around 1,000 patients per week more or less. With a mobile medical exam trailer, selected medical services can now address certain medical health needs of remote communities. Thus, if your community local officials are to purchase a mobile medical trailer to service their constituents, here are some pointers on how to select a customized mobile medical exam trailer. Customized mobile medical exam trailer must have these basic health services: Medical Imaging equipments are expensive to acquire and install. These also need more spacious room to get them installed. So depending on the allocated budget, proponents or those who will be responsible in setting up and operating a mobile medical diagnostic and laboratory trailer will have to check on what their budget can afford. For cheaper options, you may choose to merely have a single health service independent Mobile trailer like providing only a mobile Ophthalmology Clinic or an independent Dental Care Mobile Clinic within the community. Regardless of the constraints, it is highly recommended that any far-flung community that is remote from any prime medical hospital or

Reviewing The Siemens Information And Communications Network Information Technology Essay

Reviewing The Siemens Information And Communications Network Information Technology Essay Siemens Information and Communications Network are composed of several regional development centers around the world. One of those, located in Bangalore, India, was given the tasks of developing two large scale Softwares during the 1990s. The first of those, called ADMOSS (Advanced Multifunctional Operator Service System) was designed to facilitate modern call centers with some 500 features. The second one which followed after five years was called NetManager, it had a user-friendly, and graphics based user interface and some 6,000 features regarding administration and maintenance of EWSD network-nodes and networks. Both of these projects suffered huge deadlines-slippages, faulty design (at least initially), undetected-till-last-stage errors, embarrassment with customers and miscommunications between ICNs Munich headquarter and its Bangalores development center1. The following is an attempt to analyze the issues, their causes and possible avoidances for any similar projects. By the late 1980s Munich has recognized the talented human resource available in India. It was huge, both in terms of head-counts and knowledge. It was cheap, initially available at just 20% cost of a similar German software developer, which later in decade increased to 25%. It also had unmatched performance, in personal computers programming, in which ICN has deficiency in available human resource. Most ICN developers had worked on large systems and had little to no experience of personal computers programming. In contrast, Indian programmers have grown up experimenting with earlier version of desktops and laptops and by 1990s have reached level of expertise in some areas. Capitalizing on this resource, ICN decided to have the two projects done in India, in spite of huge cultural incompatibilities, language problems, physical distance and visa issues. The first project given to Bangalore was in no way any minor thing. It was made for existing and large customers of Siemens that heavily depend on it. It might be a non-optimal decision made by Munich but being risky it also promises huge benefits at end. ADMOSS had to facilitate telemarketing interface with non-Siemens equipment and handle large conference calls for example, among its other tasks. No surprise that at peak, 150 software developers were working on ADMOSS in Bangalore alone, in addition of local and German managers, testers and other supporting staff. The project was managed centrally by Munich, sending specifications for each of the subsystem to a high managerial level in Bangalore. This decision of central management was made perhaps due to initial distrust by Germans on Indians as it was their first encounter with them. In India, each subsystem was managed by a German or Indian manager who works with little co-ordination with each other. Once a subsystem is developed and tested locally is sent to Munich where it is integrated with the rest of the system. This method, though gave high power to Munich and enforced strict quality control has a design flaw, a programmer might be expert and identify flaw in the subsystem he has worked on, but cannot easily identify any integration errors. This method would have worked if Munich had a good size of its own programmers who tackle all the integration errors. The matters became more complicated due to the fact that the requirements of the software were not totally finalized at the start. While programmers are accustomed to run-time wishes made by clients given after the development has started and try their best to accommodate that, in large systems such as ADMOSS which also requires very large scale of precision (99.999% or five nines) its very hard to accommodate that once a system is already in development. While the project was being developed, a ray of emails and faxes kept coming with change requests resulting in inevitable design flaws and test failures. Later on, the developers had to work long hours to wrinkle out those design flaws to ultimately produce highly reliable software. If we try to find who is responsible for that, the blame comes on the marketing team in Munich that may have over-promised and was definitely not documenting and discussing every requirement with client. Some blame also goes to the client, who being a la rge corporation itself and had used software since a long time should know that run-time modifications often corrupt the project and requires heroic efforts by programmers to save the day. On one occasion, work on a billing application was stopped midstream after half a years work because of customers changing needs. Although this type of work interruption involved only 15-20 personnel at Bangalore each year, a programmer admitted to feeling de-motivated wondering about the intensity of miscommunication between Bangalore and Munich. This sometimes leads to the problem discussed later, high employee turnover, where programmers attempt to shift to those jobs where requirements are perceived as stable. Finally, there was problem of lack of sufficient attention given by high managers in Munich. In the words of a senior project manager, not all specifications were finished by our Munich office since we ourselves were not given enough time! Finally, when all two million lines of ADMOSS code was compiled together to create an integrated system, many problems surfaced. Major of them are: subsystems were found to be more interdependent on each other than desired, and, test criteria and tools were different in Bangalore and Munich. The first of these appears to be a shortcoming on part of developers in Munich who were responsible for integration of the subsystems and in a significantly smaller way on the subsystems developers in India. The second one, is definitely a management lapse made by Munich headquarter, the same test beds as used in Munich must be provided to Bangalore at the initial stage to ensure local error-testing and removal. That would have saved a lots of monetarily and temporal costs that the company had to finally bare. ADMOSS was finally released to the German customer at the end of 1996. As Hans Hauer, VP of Software RD put it, This was with some embarrassment because as Germans we expect delivery on time and with quality. The system turned out not to be fully stabilized and kept crashing. There were some minor problems too, like the user-interface being unprofessional, as the client commented, flashy and distracting, resembling video game interfaces, too technical style of documentation etc. When we analyze the causes of these problems a few things come up: first, the part of embarrassment due to delay is a fault of Indians but not much because at least six months efforts were lost not by any mistake of programmers but by a huge blunder made by client and sales team (discussed above). Second, the part of embarrassment due to delivery of a low quality product is fault of Munich who delivered a product not fully tested. Third, the inappropriate design of user interface is perhaps due to non-suffici ent communication about its requirements made by managers to the programmers. In absence of any stated and restricted user interface requirements, the programmers made the user interface as they liked it which of course not satisfied the customer. Fourth, Indians attempt to make documentation too technical for customer is perhaps due to language problem and cultural mismatches, which cant be blamed to any party. In spite of all of these issues, with time, the Indo-German team corrected the system faults and delivered a stable, working system to Munich. ADMOSS ended up highly popular with customers. The Bangalore site remained active with after-sales service, eventually correcting over 90% of ongoing faults. The second project given to Bangalore was called NetManager. It would be a user-friendly and graphics-based software product that would offer telecom customers a complete range of facilities for performing all operating, administration and maintenance functions on EWSD nodes and networks (e.g. integration of new telephone subscribers, billing, enable traffic studies to understand customer needs, and provide system surveillance etc among its 6,000 functions). Work at Bangalore commenced in early 1996 with an initial force of 30 programmers. The june 1998 pilot release involved some 300,000 lines of code and proved a hit at the customer test sites. Munich learned from the past project and gave Bangalore the same test-bed it was using so that developer can test the system as they develop it. By November 1999, Bangalore sent its complete NetManager Version 2 to Munich for testing. Typically Munich tested stability (or reliability) of new software installed by launching it on Friday afternoon and hoping to find no errors in the test log on Monday. NetManager Version 2, however, ran only one hour before crashing to a halt. A check of the test logs ultimately revealed a staggering 700 faults hidden at various points along some 600,000 lines of computer programming code, with 100 categorized as serious Level 1 faults. Initial trouble-shooting indicated that each fault could not simply be corrected individually, since each correction could create ripple effects across the entire system. A late November 1999 workshop in Bangalore involving managers from Munich and India tracked down the root cause of quality problems. As it turned out, the Indian group assumed, as in the case of most desktop computing applications, that the system would be shut off at night, and that it was acceptable for a desktop-based computer system to crash once a week. This assumption was further reinforced by an understanding that operation of the EWSD switch itself would not depend on NetManager. Furthermore, the Indian team underestimated system usage by an entire order of magnitude. We were ignorant! admitted an Indian programmer, we didnt think of asking what loads to test with, but Munich were also at fault for not telling us! Some of these erroneous assumptions could ultimately be traced to different work schedules. In the crucial summer months, many Germans went ahead with their several weeks-long pre-booked family vacations, often without leaving contact information, stranding the Indians. During crisis periods, Indian programmers, in contrast, typically took only personal leaves of two or three days, and worked 70-80 hours per week or even more. Balanced against this, however the ongoing high attrition rate was in Bangalore. As we analyze the issues and their causes, it is found that although the requirements were stable this time, which was a huge accomplishment on part of marketing team and upper management, it was not fully communicated to developers. This can be traced to faults of middle and lower management. As was in the user interface design of ADMOSS, since requirements were not explicitly stated the programmers made their own assumptions which (like in previous project) didnt match the requirements of the company or the customer. Another cause was often unavailability of appropriate personnel at Munich for communication because at the most crucial summer season of development they are out on long vacations. They do so often without any means of communication left. In that case, a developer would either have to wait for the person to return (which was of course unacceptable) or make his or her own assumptions to continue with the development. The solution is either to reschedule the vacations time period to some less crucial months (lets say spring) or the person keep in contact with ICN through a phone. In case of a vacation trip to very remote location where telephone is unavailable, the person should call to company as soon as he reaches a near city or village with a telephone line. This lack of professionalism on part of Germans resulted in Indians taking no annual vacations, working double hours a week than they are paid for and taking the pain of late modifications in design and code. On part of Indians, the high turnover was a very big issue. Once a developer hop to a better paying job, almost entire computer code written by him or her immediately becomes useless for sometime until some other programmer decrypt it and in some cases even rewrite it. This may have resulted in delays and design flaws when somebody try to modify an already made design in his or her own way not thought by the original designer no longer in company. In January 2000, the NetManager was finally demonstrated to the client. Lots of errors came up. They were traced down to two root causes. First, the German testers presenting the software to the client were not well-prepared. Second, the test-bed provided to Bangalore by Munich in 1996 had gone outdated by now and was not the same test-bed Munich now uses or was used in the demonstration to client. Both of these causes can be easily traced to the faults on part of Germans. The testers had no acceptable reason for unpreparedness. The high management responsible for updating Bangalore with test-bed was ignorant towards this duty. We can conclude that, having worked together for well over half a decade the cultural differences between the two countries were handled well. With time Indians understood what is expected from them and Germans spent substantial time and money training its people to decode Indian communications. A German spent 3 years in Bangalore becoming expert in South Indian English accent and understanding of local culture and hidden meanings of phrases etc. But there is a limit to what humans can accomplish, the physical distance between Munich and Bangalore remained a reality, advent of faxes, telephone calls, emails and even video calls can never substitute face-to-face communication. Two developers working together on the same computer (as in Extreme Programming2) cannot be substituted with two developers chatting on an Instant Messenger (such as hotmail or yahoo) even if through Remote Desktop Sharing they can actually view each others computer screen and run actions on it. It is also learn ed that human conflicts in most cases can only be solved with real, face-to-face communication. In absence of hyper-fast physical transportation (such as one that reduce travel time between the two cities to less than one hour) and no visa restrictions the problems faced by ICN in development of ADMOSS and NetManager are very likely to raise its ugly head time and again.

An Asian Nuclear Cooperation Regime :: Politics Political Science ASIATOM

An Asian Nuclear Cooperation Regime I. Introduction Nuclear cooperation regimes have long been considered as confidence-building measures designed to reduce tensions arising from the uncertainty of nations’ nuclear energy programs. The first such regime was EURATOM, which emerged in Europe as a separate system of safeguards and transparency measures for European states. This regime was consistent with the goal of the political unification of the European Economic Community, and might not have functioned as effectively had it not been tied to that political effort. Currently a discussion of an Asian nuclear cooperation regime is underway, initiated by Japanese officials and intellectuals, which may borrow substantially from the European experience in nuclear cooperation. These officials have proposed the creation of an ASIATOM, which would include Japan, China, North Korea, South Korea, and possibly Taiwan. Others have expanded the regime’s potential membership to the U.S., Canada, and Australia, and labeled the potential group PACATOM. There have been several proposals for such a nuclear cooperation regime, and they vary according to the activities encompassed and the degree of cooperation involved. The central point of controversy over ASIATOM proposals has been the issue of reprocessing. Japan has currently invested substantial amounts of its resources into the development of civil reprocessing capability, and China may be prepared to do the same. The United States would be unlikely to violate its Carter Administration policy of discouraging reprocessing outside the U.S., and would be unlikely to support or join an ASIATOM that involved reprocessing. One anonymous U.S. State Department official stated, "’Clearly, if an Asiatom proposal is about reprocessing, it’s not going to fly†¦And if it excludes the U.S., it’s not going to fly,’ the official said, adding: ‘Japan does not want to go it alone.’"1 The reprocessing issue is also the central reason for the general support for the idea of an ASIATOM in Japan. Japan’s civilian reprocessing proposals, with plans to move to fast-breeder reactors, has made some states in the Asia- Pacific region wary of their intentions. After all, reprocessing of spent fuel involves the separation of plutonium, and even reactor-grade plutonium (involving greater concentrations of Pu-240 and Pu-242) is suitable for weapons production in sufficient quantities. Japan’s reprocessing program has caused other states in the region to begin to raise the issue of developing their own reprocessing capabilities. From the U.S. perspective, the spread of reprocessing capability is damaging to regional security interests because of the possibility of the use of reprocessing for either deliberate national-level nuclear weapons production or the possibility of the theft of separated fissile material.

Discuss The Factors That Influence Our Judgement, Thinking And Decision-Making

?Discuss some the factors which influence our thinking, judgement and decision-making Our everyday lives are filled with many choices and decisions which will impact on our lives both in the short and long-term. Our perception of the impact of these decisions on our own lives and those around us will affect how much time and effort is given to arriving at these decisions.There are several factors which impact on thinking, judgement and decision-making and it is important to note that often these occur simultaneously rather than as individual areas but in order fully understand the entire process we must analyse the factors in each individual area. While it is neither practicable or possible to consider all the factors in every decision, knowledge of the factors, process and how they interact can be of critical importance.By understanding the factors, we can ascertain how we make decisions and by gaining knowledge on the entire process, we can ultimately arrive at better decisions by being conscious of our thought and application process. How we think and apply our thought process to the decisions often determine the paths we choose to take. There are two systems, or modes, which determine how we think (Kahneman, 2011). The first system is fast, automatic, emotional and frequent and the second system is slow, logical, infrequent and conscious.The title of the Kahneman’s book, Thinking, Fast and Slow, gives us an indication of the two systems. The first system, thinking fast, is associated with quick response taking into consideration the environment in which we are in which then allows us to respond immediately. This can be important especially in times of danger and the system relies heavily on general rules and guidelines, known as heuristics. These heuristics are primarily geared towards helping us in the moment and protecting us from immediate danger and are very useful in this regard.However, the heuristics are designed to work in the environment fro m which we have evolved and outside of this environment can lead to errors. The second system, slow thinking, is the one we would normally associate with the thought process in the strictest sense. The process is a slow one which is both deliberate and conscious and we would feel that we are in control. The slow system may be used to determine what clothes we will wear today or which shares we should invest in to gain a higher return of investment. While both these systems operate in different ways, they too are interconnected and rely on each other.Any impressions that are formed through system one will be fed into system two. In situations where system one encounters an environment to which it is unfamiliar, it will automatically mobilise system two to give assistance. The information and thought process in system one is crucial in protecting us from day to day; it is nevertheless much less effective for any long term planning. Any short –comings of one system is made up fo r by the ability of the other system and combined can ensure better outcomes whether in the immediate or longer term.While the way in which we think, using either of the systems or modes of thinking described by Kahneman, is important, so too will logic play an important role in our thought process and how we reach decisions. Deductive reasoning, also known as deductive logic or logical deduction is the process of reasoning from one or more general premises or statements to reach a logical conclusion which is certain. Deductive reasoning makes a clear link between premises and conclusions and it recognises that if all premises are true and the terms are clear and the principles of deductive logic are followed then the conclusion that is reached is true.For example, if all students eat in the canteen, and Martin is a student, then Martin must eat in the canteen. Inductive reasoning, on the other hand, is reasoning whereby the premises would seek to supply strong evidence for the trut h of the conclusion. While a deductive argument is supposed to give certainty, inductive will giveprobable certainty. Using the example above, more evidence would need to be sought in order to determine of Martin does indeed eat in the canteen and it would not be taken as given until further evidence is provided.The application of either deductive or inductive reasoning will be a vital factor in our decision-making. In certain circumstances it may be suitable to apply either, depending on the importance and certainty required in decision and the impact of making assumptions. However, there are also some factors which can distort the outcome of any decision and the logic may not be true where a fallacy exists. A fallacy is â€Å"a mistaken belief, especially one based on unsound arguments† (www. oxforddicionaries. com). An argument can be fallacious, irrespective whether or not the conclusion is true.There are two types of fallacy, formal and informal. A formal fallacy is an e rror that stems from a poor logical form whereas an informal fallacy is an error in reasoning that does not originate in improper logical form. A formal fallacy results in a pattern of reasoning that will always be wrong due to a flaw in the logical structure of the argument which will render the argument invalid. A fallacy can be of presumption which fails to prove the conclusion by simply assuming that the conclusion in itself is proof. A fallacy of weak inference would fail to prove the conclusion without sufficient evidence.Fallacies of distraction are those that fail to prove the conclusion with irrelevant information such as emotion while a fallacy of ambiguity would fail to prove the conclusion due to the impreciseness of the words or grammar. Some fallacies may be committed intentionally in order to either manipulate or persuade by deception or unintentionally due to a lack of understanding or carelessness. Either way, such situations can result in an alternative action than that which may have being taken if complete or accurate information was supplied.As with all information supplied for the basis of decisions, it should be checked to ensure greater accuracy throughout the decision-making process and to reduce the likelihood of judgemental biases. â€Å"Decision makers are susceptible to a number of judgemental biases that systematically lead to predictable inconsistencies and decisional errors† (Nisbett & Ross, 1980). We often use our judgement to quicken the decision-making process and we will use of judgement to assist us during this process. However, as Nisbett and Ross have identified, this process can often lead to errors.Selective perception, impression effects including primacy, regency and halo as well as framing and presentation effects and hindsight are all examples of judgemental biases with can distort our analysis and ultimately impact on our decision-making. Selective perception is whereby an individual perceives what they want from a message, in any form of communication including a picture or an advertisement, and ignoring everything else. People tend to see things from within their own frame of reference and as a result the message they receive may be distorted or inaccurate.This may occur due to the amount of information we receive and our inability to accurately process all the information our brain receives. We subconsciously scan the information that we receive and as a result we often not only see what we want to see but also what we expect to see (Plous, 1993). An example of this bias is the Hostile Media Effect, which refers to the finding that people who have strong biases towards a certain issue perceive media coverage as being biased against their opinions, irrespective of the reality. The results of a study carried outin Stanford University (Valone, Ross & Lepper, 1985), which showed news clips from the Sabra and Shatila massacre in Beirut to both pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli students, fo und thatboth sides considered the clips to be slanted in favour of the other side. The strength of our emotional attachment can have a significant influence on how we can perceive situations and can therefore distort our perception and influence our decisions. We have often heard that first impressions last so we are advised from childhood right through to preparing for interviews to make a good first impression.The basis for this is the primacy effect which â€Å"occurs when initial impressions are believed to be more relevant and important in rendering a decision than later impressions† (Williams, 2002). While this instinctive reaction is often correct, it can also be misleading and allowing us to form the wrong opinion. In such cases, because our opinion is already formed, it can be difficult to change this as we are unlikely to allow ourselves time to develop the relationship further.As well as the primacy effect occurring in instances such as the interview, it can also o ccur in situations when, for example a presentation that is presented first will leave a greater impressions, irrespective of the value of the content. In certain situations, it is, however the most recent incident which will be perceived to be most relevant and this is referred to the regency effect. This is often the case when recalling words or number or even items such as when contestants on TV shows such as The Generation Game would recall the items that had previously passed before them on a conveyor belt.Research showed that in most cases, contestants recalled the last item first in most instances (www. bbc. co. uk). The timing of when a decision will be made is a crucial factor and if a decision is to be delayed by as much as a week, then the primacy effect will take precedence whereas if the second or final argument isn’t delivered until a later date then the regency effect will carry more weight. Another factor which may influence our judgement and decision making i s the so-called ‘halo effect’, a cognitive bias whereby the judgement of a person’s character is influenced by one’s overall impression.The manner in which this can manifest itself it best illustrated with an example: you are at a party and meet a friendly person. Later that week you have asked to become involved in a charity event and are seeking sponsorship. You contact the person you met at the party as you suspect they will make a donation. In reality, there is no link between the pleasant nature of the person you met at the party and generosity. Yet, the halo effect is leading you towards the assumption that the two are connected.Many people use the halo effect to sway peoples judgement and it very often exploited by politicians. A local GP may seek election to local or national government having made numerous promises in their bid for election. The electorate may determine that because they are educated and medically qualified they will make good pol iticians. In reality, there is no correlation between the two but the halo effect in many cases convinces the electorate. The opposite of the halo effect is known as the devils horns effect and is essentially the reverse.If a negative characteristic is identified in an individual, then further negative attributes may be associated with them without sufficient evidence. In order to try and form a balanced and more objective opinion, it is important to be aware of the existence of the halo or devil’s horns effect and begin to ascertain what the actual characteristics or traits rather than simply forming an opinion without sufficient evidence. How information is both presented and framed to the decision maker can impact on their final judgement.The manner in which the information is received can impact on how the information is processed. For example, if we are asked how if we consider if someone is tall or small, or if the question of weight is presented as how large or small i s someone, we may give different opinions. Similarly, anchoring may occur when the questions is presented with data which may influence the decision-maker. Anchoring is the â€Å"act of basing a judgement on a familiar reference point that is incomplete or irrelevant to the problem that is being solved† (www.businessdictionary). Again, the manner in which the information is presented may influence the decision-maker. In the event of a company deciding on a projected return-on-investment, the CFO may ask the general manger if a 15% return would be acceptable. The general manger may anchor to the figure of 15%, whereas this should not be a reference point at all and if the information was presented with a certain tone, the general manager’s opinion may be swayed by this too.â€Å"When information becomes an anchor, we adjust insufficiently form that amount when making decisions† (Williams, 2002). Our decisions are also influenced how a problem is framed. This effe ct can occur when decisions makers are more inclined to avoid risk and problems are famed as gains and when they may seek risk problems are viewed as losses. Framing can also influence the decision maker when the information is presented in a positive rather than a negative manner. For example, there is a 90% chance of a positive return of investment rather than a 10% chance of a loss.In order to minimise presentation and framing effects and reduce the tendency to anchor, it can be beneficial to review the number of items under consideration in order to get a better picture of the situation in question. This can remove any bias by ensuring a greater range and reduces the focus from the presented information to increases the overall assessment and reduce and judgement bias. Hindsight, or the ‘knew it all along effect', can also have an impact on our judgement. It refers to the inclination to recall past events as being more predictable than they were prior to the event taking p lace.Hindsight bias may lead to memory distortion whereby those recalling the past events can reconstruct the event in such a manner that it leads to false or misleading theoretical outcomes. Studies carried out by Kahneman and Tversky show that the effect can cause problems when trying to analyse, interpret and understand results. One of the basic problems with hindsight it that the person may consider that they â€Å"knew it all along†, and examples have been cited in historians accounts of battles and in judicial systems when responsibility is being attributed.In business, hindsight may influence a decision and may cause an element of overconfidence in the decision when the decision maker sees themselves who remember correctly when in fact they are forgetting they made the wrong decision the first time. â€Å"The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future† (Kahneman, 2012). When faced with new information, hindsi ght can cause the distortion in the original analysis and can lead impact on future similar decisions In making any decisions, as outlined above, how we think and the factors that influence our judgement are critical.However, the factors that influence our decision making process is not limited to those. Groupthink, the levels of risk associated with the decisions, the rationality of the decision-maker as well as cultural and political influences all play an important role in influencing our decision making. Understanding the role of all these factors and how they ultimately influence to decision-making process us can assist us in making better informed decisions. Groupthink can occur within a group of people when a desire for conformity within the group results in an incorrect outcome in the decision-making process.The members of the group, in an effort to avoid conflict and reach a general consensus, do not critically review or evaluate the ideas sufficiently as doing so may resul t in isolation. As a result of groupthink, there is a loss of creativity and there is little or no encourage for independent thinking, which can lead to a dysfunctional group. The group is likely to encounter an illusion of invulnerability, an inflated certainty that they have made the right decisions and â€Å"to deterioration in mental efficiency, reality testing and moral judgments as a result of group pressures†, (Janis, 1972).Janis has extensively researched ways to avoid groupthink including the examination of all alternatives, an independent leader and the appointment of a ‘devil’s advocate’. He also advocated the â€Å"vigilant appraisal â€Å", (Janis, 1982), as used by President Kennedy during the Cuban Missile Crisis when the President invited experts in to give their opinion and allowed those experts to be questioned. The level of uncertainty and risk is an important factor influencing the decision-maker. The entire process is an attempt to t ry to reduce, or, if possible remove risks and uncertainties.The decision makers risk preference will also impact on the level of risk and uncertainty which will remain. In the face of uncertainty, key decisions may be put on hold until such time as the level of uncertainty is eliminated or, at least, reduced. It is important to note that there is a distinction between risk and uncertainty. Uncertainty is the situation whereby multiple outcomes are possible but are not yet known whereas risk is a situation of uncertainty whereby the possible outcomes will involve some degree of losses dependent on the actual outcome of the situation.The decision maker’s perception of risk, the framing of the risk and the level of personal involvement will also be a factor in the final decision and these will assist to determine the level of control the decisions maker has over the situation. The level of control the decision maker will play an important role because while a particular action may be riskier it may be taken if greater control can be exerted on the possible outcomes.In most situations the level of risk will never be completely eliminated, however it is important that all actions are taken to reduce its impact and in this regard a good understanding of our perception of risk and risk preference is a key consideration. In making any decision, it is usually assumed the person or persons making the decision will act in a rational manner. A rational decision maker will use â€Å"a method for systematically selecting among possible choices that is based on reason and facts† (www.businessdictionary. com). During the process those tasked with making the decision will often use a number of analytical steps to review the facts and possible outcomes before they decide on what course of action to pursue. A rational decision is one that is not only reasoned but one that is the optimal one for solving a problem or for achieving a goal. Determining the optimum cou rse of action will require collating and quantifying information and making several key assumptions.These assumptions must be clearly identified, otherwise, the decision maker may be seen to be acting in their own self-interest, and thus in an irrational manner. â€Å"Good decision making involves sufficient search for possibilities, evidence and goals, and fairness in the search for evidence and in inference†, (Baron,1991). However, the decision-maker may also be limited bounded rationality by the amount of information available to them, the time constraints imposed upon them, the cognitive limitation of their minds or the amount of resources, financial and non-financial at their disposal.This notion of bounded rationality was proposed by Herbert Simon whereby â€Å"the decision-makers lack the ability and resources to arrive at the optimal solution, they instead apply their rationality only after having greatly simplified the choices available† (www. princton. edu). Thus, it can be argued that the decision maker’s choice will be limited given the information available to them and the ability of those to act in rational manner, and they will often become satisfiers, seeking a satisfactory outcome rather than an optimal one.We constantly strive to make the best possible decisions and to make the most rational decisions can. However, as outlined above, we are subject to bounded rationality and therefore must, in reality try to determine the best possible outcome. The decisions we make are also affected by our nature, our chemical make-up, our environment and importantly, the role our emotions play. Our emotions can often overrule our reasoning and affect our logical approach to decisions, and it is important that we take time to consider options and alternatives before making unnecessary impulsive decisions.The desire to make quick and compulsive decisions can result in good decisions on occasions but finding an ability to restrict our incl ination to make compulsive decisions, which can be strongly influence by our emotions, can often result in improved decision making. Decision making is part of everyday life both personally and professionally. As outlined above there are many factors which influence our thinking, judgement and decision-making.However, the factors and process is not limited to those mentioned but also involves consideration of a cost/benefit analysis, which will impact of the rationality of the decision, as well as the emotional condition and level of involvement of those making the decisions and there may even be an element of luck, however â€Å"the idea that large historical events are determined by luck is profoundly shocking, although it is demonstrably true† (Kahneman, 2012). The time horizon and the effects of any decision should, where possible, be considered in the context of both the short and long-term to fully understand its implications.It is evident that the entire process does n ot involve one, or even several of the factors mentioned, but is rather a combination of both conscious and subconscious actions which, when combined, will impact on the decision. It is also clear that the correct or most favourable decision will not always be reached but recognition of the processes and the factors which influence our thinking, judgement and decision making will ensure that the choices we make will be better informed and therefore result in greater probability that the decisions we make are the optimal ones.

Anthony Robles

â€Å"God made you this way for a reason†, this was told to a young boy by his mother who would later become something that no one would ever expect. On July 20, 1988, Anthony Robles came in the world there was just one problem that doctors didn’t understand when, Judy Robles, age 16, gave birth to a baby boy who was missing his right leg. Doctors could not explain what went wrong or why he was missing a leg, all the way up to the hip with no stump to attach a prosthetic limb.Doctors work on a prosthetic leg that would help Anthony but, he would rather just deal with how was he was born because as his mother always told him growing up that â€Å"God made him this way for a reason† and she made sure that no matter what he would believe it. Like all good mom’s she was correct and Anthony Robles finally learned he was made the way he was, when he was only the age of 14, in Mesa, Arizona, when he tried out for the wrestling team. Anthony first year was horribl e.Was Anthony the smallest kid on the team weighing in at a whopping ninety pounds but without question, was the worst wrestler; finishing his first year at 5-8 records and in last place at the Mesa City wrestling tournament. People started to believe that a tiny kid born with one leg who had to use crutches to get around, the worst wrestler in the city, would never excel in such a demanding sport and that it was just a waste of his time and the teams time to have him on the team.However, with the support of his family and coaches, Anthony Robles believed he could one day be a champion wrestler; he believed that he could be UNSTOPPABLE. He said the turning point was his sophomore year. â€Å"I took sixth in high school state thanks to his good friend, Chris Freije, who was the state champion that year, helped Anthony by wrestling against him in practice all the time and always beating him until Anthony one day finally beat Freije. Anthony wanted to be a state champion just like him and the best in the state.Despite various obstacles along the way and hard work mixed with desire, Anthony went from being last in the city to finishing his junior and senior years at Mesa High School with a 96-0 record, an overall record of 129-15 and 2-time Arizona State Champion and a high school National Champion. After Anthony, finishing with an awesome high school record, few college wrestling programs believed Anthony Robles could excel at the next level just because of the high level of the sport in the college ranks.They told him, †He was too small to wrestle in college and that a one legged wrestler could never compete with the nations best college wrestlers. â€Å" Remember thought what his mom said from day one about him â€Å"He was born the way he was for a reason†, so he believed he could do anything he set my mind to. Anthony walked onto the Arizona State University wrestling team to prove to the haters, and the world, anything was possible.Through tri als and hardships, both on and off the wrestling mat, Anthony Robles ended his college career on March 19, in Philadelphia, at the NCAA Division I Wrestling Championship vs. Matt McDonough the defending 125lbs national champion, of Iowa, in the final Anthony Robles was a national champion, and he was named the tournament's outstanding wrestler. Anthony finals win-loss total in his college was 122 wins and 22 loses, going 36-0 in his senior year and was a 3-time All-American and of course 2011 NCAA National Champion.Anthony Robles has become a motivational speaker, specifically for those who face similar handicaps like him which was one of his goals to tackle once his career was over but watch out for him because the 2016 Olympic games could happen Anthony is still training and could very well be apart of the games. Last year he won the Jimmy V Award for Perseverance and Best Male Athlete with a Disability, The Jimmy V Award is given to a â€Å"deserving member of the sporting world who has overcome great obstacles through physical perseverance and determination. Anthony gave thanks to his family and supporters and left everyone with his message: â€Å"Every soul who comes to earth with a leg or two at birth must wrestle his opponents knowing it's not what is, it's what can be that measures worth. Make it hard, just make it possible and through pain I'll not complain. My spirit is unconquerable, fearless I will face each foe, for I know I am capable. I don't care what's probable, through blood, sweat, and tears, I am unstoppable. Works Cited American Entertainment International Speakers Bureau. (n. d. ). Retrieved from http://www. aeispeakers. com/speakerbio. php? SpeakerID=430 ESPN. (n. d. ). Retrieved from http://sports. espn. go. com/espn/page2/story? id=6754598 USA TODAY. (n. d. ). Retrieved from http://www. usatoday. com/sports/college/2011-03-21-anthony-robles-retires_N. htm Youtube. (n. d. ). Retrieved from http://www. youtube. com/watch? v=m3TdwPW9lrI